Covid Changed the Trading Card Market. Where is it now?
Estimated reading time: 3.5 minutes (689 words)
As 2020 dragged on and the Covid-19 pandemic settled in for the long term, people looked for distractions to take their minds off the unprecedented events unfolding every day.
One of the most popular hobbies was a return to tradition by collecting trading cards. The trading card market exploded early in the pandemic as people capitalized on their nostalgia and sought alternative forms of investment — safe harbors that would keep their assets safe and appreciate over time.
The trading card market surged between 2020 and 2022, culminating with a mint condition 1952 Mickey Mantle card being sold at auction for $12.6 million in 2022, eclipsing the previous auction record of $6.6 million set one year previously.
Just how hot was the card market at the start of the pandemic? This hot: 10 of the 12 most expensive sports cards ever sold were all sold between August 2020 and August 2023. But since the Mickey Mantle card set the record two years ago the trading card market has cooled off.
Where does it go from here?
“There are some macro economic trends that have an impact on the trading card economy,” said Geoff Wilson, founder of Sports Card Investor, an online database that tracks card populations and prices. “If interest rates are high, it's unlikely that an investment of sportscards is going to outpace other forms of investing. We have definitely seen some fall off in prices pretty significantly over the last couple of years.”
A report by Altan Insights, a data and analysis firm focused on collectible assets, found that changes in card values in the first quarter of 2024 were “uneventful” and essentially holding steady: “Modern cards were down 0.5%, while Vintage gained just under 1%. Many sports and eras were similarly range-bound to low-single-digit outcomes in either direction.”
Values may be treading water, but six-figure auction volume is down 23% year-over-year and 60% from its peak in 2022, according to Altan. Wilson attributes the industry slow-down to a bubble popping.
“With so many people at home during Covid getting stimulus money you saw a bit of a bubble occur. I think it dried up because of a combination of people spending their money elsewhere, people having less discretionary money to spend, people putting money into other things, and interest rates rising. For all of those reasons, you saw a lot less money going into cards.”
With the market coming down from its peak, is it realistic to expect another Mickey Mantle-type card setting a new record any time soon?
“I think that record will stand for quite a while until one of the rare cards that happen to be more valuable go back on the market again,” Wilson said.
Michael Osacky, the lead appraiser for Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA), has also observed the shift in the market. “Volume is down and prices, generally speaking, are down as well.” But despite this slowdown, Osacky believes a new mindset shift has occurred that will alter the market going forward.
“It’s permanent, it's here forever, and that's a good thing. Five or six years ago, people didn't really see sports collectibles as a serious alternative asset. But now they do.”
Like trading cards, fine wine, rare whiskeys, and other luxury goods have experienced asset appreciation that have outperformed the stock market. The price of fine wine, for example, has increased 146% since 2014 — although it only rose 1% in the last year, according to a report by British consulting firm Knight Frank. Rare whiskeys have risen even more: 280% in the last decade, but with a much sharper correction with -9% price growth in the last year.
But Osacky’s point stands: alternative assets like trading cards are here to stay.
This market might be on the verge of expanding once again. In January 2022, Fanatics acquired the Topps trading card company in a deal worth $500 million. Osacky sees this as a game changer.
“We're going to start seeing commercials by Fanatics. It might be in the Super Bowl or World Series. You’ll be eating your dinner and you’ll see a commercial about baseball cards. Holy cow.”